Case file
Neglect of Probability
- Filed under
- Not Enough Meaning
- Also recorded as
- probability neglect
The charge
Neglect of probability is reacting to how vivid or scary an outcome is while giving too little weight to how likely it actually is.
How it operates
The affect heuristic makes emotionally charged possibilities dominate judgment, crowding out numeric probability.
Logged incidents
- Incident 01
A company overinvests in defenses against an exotic attack while ignoring common password failures.
- Incident 02
A buyer rejects a supplier over a tiny scandal risk while ignoring certain cost overruns elsewhere.
- Incident 03
An executive buys expensive insurance for an unlikely loss with poor expected value because the scenario feels terrifying.
What to watch for
Ask: Am I reacting to how salient this outcome is more than to its actual probability?
Recommended action
Use frequency framing and expected-value tables so probability and impact are assessed together.
Known associates
- ConfabulationConfabulation is unintentionally filling gaps in memory or explanation with details that feel true but were…
- Clustering IllusionClustering illusion is seeing meaningful streaks or clumps in data that are actually compatible with…
- Insensitivity to Sample SizeInsensitivity to sample size is treating small samples as if they are just as reliable as large ones.
- Anecdotal FallacyAnecdotal fallacy is letting one or two vivid stories outweigh broader and better-quality evidence.
- Illusion of ValidityIllusion of validity is feeling highly confident in a judgment because the evidence forms a neat story, even…
- Masked-Man FallacyMasked-man fallacy is treating differences in what is known about something under one description versus…
Source of record