Case file
Appeal to Probability
- Filed under
- Not Enough Meaning
- Also recorded as
- appeal to probability
The charge
Appeal to probability fallacy is assuming that because something could happen or is plausible, it probably will happen.
How it operates
Once a scenario is imaginable, the mind often upgrades possibility into expectation without enough evidence.
Logged incidents
- Incident 01
A founder budgets as if a product will go viral because it could.
- Incident 02
An executive assumes a regulation will definitely hurt competitors.
- Incident 03
A roadmap counts on every integration partner saying yes.
What to watch for
Ask: Did I just move from possible to likely without evidence?
Recommended action
Assign explicit probabilities and build decision trees or weighted scenarios before committing resources.
Known associates
- Mental AccountingMental accounting is treating money or resources differently based on arbitrary labels instead of on total…
- Normalcy BiasNormalcy bias is underestimating the possibility and impact of disaster because the present still feels…
- Murphy's Law (as cognitive bias)As a cognitive bias, Murphy's Law is the tendency to overexpect that things will go wrong, often in chains,…
- Zero-Sum ThinkingZero-sum bias is assuming one person's or group's gain must come at another's expense, even when mutual gain…
- Survivorship BiasSurvivorship bias is drawing lessons from the cases that remain visible while missing the failures that…
- Subadditivity EffectSubadditivity effect is assigning higher total probability when a broad category is unpacked into specific…
Source of record