Case file
Confirmation Bias
- Filed under
- Too Much Information
The charge
We seek, interpret, and remember information in ways that support what we already believe. Disconfirming evidence gets less attention or gets explained away.
How it operates
People prefer cognitive consistency and dislike being wrong, so they sample evidence asymmetrically. Existing beliefs guide both search and interpretation.
Logged incidents
- Incident 01
A PM interviews only users who asked for the feature and concludes demand is obvious.
- Incident 02
An investor reads mostly bullish threads after buying a stock and dismisses bearish analysis as noise.
- Incident 03
A hiring manager notices every signal that confirms a strong first impression and overlooks warning signs.
What to watch for
Ask yourself: 'What evidence would make me change my mind, and have I looked for it as hard as confirming evidence?'
Recommended action
Use consider-the-opposite, red teaming, and actively open-minded thinking. Require at least one serious disconfirming check before committing.
Known associates
- Congruence BiasWe test whether our favored idea fits instead of trying to find out whether it fails.
- Choice-Supportive BiasWe remember the option we chose as better than it really was and the options we rejected as worse than they…
- Selective PerceptionPeople perceive the same evidence differently because expectations, motives, and prior beliefs shape what…
- Observer-Expectancy EffectAn observer's expectations can subtly change what they notice, record, or even elicit from others.
- Ostrich EffectWe avoid information that might be painful, threatening, or shame-inducing, especially when it could force…
- Subjective ValidationA statement feels accurate because it seems personally meaningful, even if it is vague or broadly applicable.
Source of record