Case file
Illusory Correlation
- Filed under
- Not Enough Meaning
The charge
Illusory correlation is perceiving a relationship between two variables when the evidence is weak, selective, or absent.
How it operates
Salient pairings are easier to remember than non-pairings, so they feel more statistically meaningful than they are.
Logged incidents
- Incident 01
A hiring manager thinks candidates from one school stay longer because two stars did.
- Incident 02
A product team blames dark mode for support volume after a memorable rollout.
- Incident 03
An investor links founder charisma with returns after a few standout cases.
What to watch for
Ask: What does the full contingency table say, not just the cases I remember?
Recommended action
Inspect full cross-tabs or holdout data before inferring correlation.
Known associates
- ConfabulationConfabulation is unintentionally filling gaps in memory or explanation with details that feel true but were…
- Clustering IllusionClustering illusion is seeing meaningful streaks or clumps in data that are actually compatible with…
- Insensitivity to Sample SizeInsensitivity to sample size is treating small samples as if they are just as reliable as large ones.
- Neglect of ProbabilityNeglect of probability is reacting to how vivid or scary an outcome is while giving too little weight to how…
- Anecdotal FallacyAnecdotal fallacy is letting one or two vivid stories outweigh broader and better-quality evidence.
- Illusion of ValidityIllusion of validity is feeling highly confident in a judgment because the evidence forms a neat story, even…
Source of record