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Case file

Frequency Illusion

Filed under
Too Much Information
Also recorded as
Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, Baader-Meinhof effect

The charge

After you notice or learn something once, you suddenly start seeing it everywhere and feel as if its frequency has increased. Usually, your attention changed more than the world did.


How it operates

A new item becomes highly salient in memory, so you detect it more often and then interpret each sighting as confirmation that it is unusually common. Selective attention and confirmation work together here.

Logged incidents

  1. Incident 01

    After hearing about usage-based pricing, a PM starts seeing it in every SaaS product and overestimates how dominant the model is.

  2. Incident 02

    A recruiter learns a new technical buzzword and then thinks every promising candidate seems to have it.

  3. Incident 03

    An investor reads about AI wrappers and suddenly believes the market is flooded with them.

What to watch for

Ask yourself: 'Did the base rate really change, or did I just become newly sensitized to this pattern?'

Recommended action

Track actual counts over time and compare them with a baseline before concluding something is surging. Base-rate logging is the simplest antidote.

Known associates

Source of record

en.wikipedia.org

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