Case file
Recency Illusion
- Filed under
- Not Enough Meaning
The charge
Recency illusion is the feeling that something you only recently noticed must itself be new or newly common.
How it operates
Selective attention and availability make first noticing feel like first existence.
Logged incidents
- Incident 01
A manager thinks AI agents became popular only this quarter because she just started watching the space.
- Incident 02
A recruiter notices one job title and assumes it is the new market standard.
- Incident 03
A PM sees a burst of accessibility complaints and concludes the issue is brand new.
What to watch for
Ask: Did this truly increase, or did I just start noticing it now?
Recommended action
Check historical search trends, archives, or internal logs before declaring a new trend.
Known associates
- ConfabulationConfabulation is unintentionally filling gaps in memory or explanation with details that feel true but were…
- Clustering IllusionClustering illusion is seeing meaningful streaks or clumps in data that are actually compatible with…
- Insensitivity to Sample SizeInsensitivity to sample size is treating small samples as if they are just as reliable as large ones.
- Neglect of ProbabilityNeglect of probability is reacting to how vivid or scary an outcome is while giving too little weight to how…
- Anecdotal FallacyAnecdotal fallacy is letting one or two vivid stories outweigh broader and better-quality evidence.
- Illusion of ValidityIllusion of validity is feeling highly confident in a judgment because the evidence forms a neat story, even…
Source of record