Case file
Hindsight Bias
- Filed under
- Not Enough Meaning
- Also recorded as
- I-knew-it-all-along effect
The charge
Hindsight bias is the tendency to feel, after an outcome is known, that it was predictable all along.
How it operates
The known result reshapes memory of earlier uncertainty and makes alternative outcomes fade.
Logged incidents
- Incident 01
A board says the churn spike was obvious after it happens.
- Incident 02
An investor claims rate cuts were clearly coming once they arrive.
- Incident 03
A manager remembers a successful hire as inevitable.
What to watch for
Ask: What did I actually predict before the outcome was known?
Recommended action
Keep forecast logs, probability ranges, and premortems.
Known associates
- Telescoping EffectTelescoping effect is misremembering when past events happened, often pulling distant events closer and…
- Rosy RetrospectionRosy retrospection is remembering past experiences as better than they felt at the time.
- Outcome BiasOutcome bias is judging the quality of a decision mainly by its result instead of by the information and…
- Moral LuckMoral luck is judging people differently for similar choices because luck changed the eventual outcome.
- DeclinismDeclinism is seeing the past as better than it was and the future as likely worse than it will be.
- Impact BiasImpact bias is overestimating how intense and how long your future emotional reaction to an event will be.
Source of record