Case file
Lake Wobegon Effect
- Filed under
- Need To Act Fast
- Also recorded as
- better-than-average effect, above-average effect
The charge
Most people rate themselves as above average on desirable qualities, even when that cannot be true for everyone.
How it operates
Self-enhancement and selective recall make our strengths feel vivid, while we conveniently choose comparison points that flatter us.
Logged incidents
- Incident 01
Most managers in a company rate their coaching ability above average.
- Incident 02
A sales org in which nearly everyone claims to be top-quartile at discovery calls.
- Incident 03
Drivers in a fleet survey mostly describe themselves as safer than average.
What to watch for
It shows up when a large share of people around you all think they are above average on the same trait. Ask: 'If everyone here made this claim, could it still be true?'
Recommended action
Force percentile estimates against real benchmarks and use 360 feedback instead of self-ratings alone.
Known associates
- Overconfidence EffectEasily confusedPeople's confidence in their judgments often exceeds their actual accuracy, especially for predictions,…
- Optimism BiasEasily confusedWe expect our future to go better than base rates justify, especially for risks, timelines, and outcomes…
- Illusory SuperiorityEasily confusedWe judge our own abilities or qualities as better than they really are relative to others or to objective…
- Social Desirability BiasPeople report attitudes or behaviors that make them look good to others instead of what is most accurate or…
- Third-Person EffectWe tend to believe persuasive messages, misinformation, or manipulation affect other people more than they…
- False Consensus EffectWe overestimate how much other people share our beliefs, preferences, and habits.
Source of record