Case file
Anchoring
- Filed under
- Too Much Information
- Also recorded as
- Anchoring effect, Focalism
The charge
An initial number, label, or piece of information pulls later estimates toward it, even when it is arbitrary or only weakly relevant. First impressions become sticky reference points.
How it operates
People start from a salient reference point and adjust away too little. The first value sets the mental range of reasonable answers.
Logged incidents
- Incident 01
A seller opens a salary negotiation with a high number and the final offer stays closer to it than the candidate's value would justify.
- Incident 02
A quarterly forecast begins with last quarter's number, and later updates never fully reflect a major market shift.
- Incident 03
A pricing team tests around the first proposed price point instead of re-estimating willingness to pay from scratch.
What to watch for
Ask yourself: 'If I had seen a very different starting value, how much would my answer move?'
Recommended action
Generate an independent estimate before exposure to anchors, then use consider-the-opposite and outside-view ranges. Bracketing with multiple plausible anchors also helps.
Known associates
- Conservatism BiasWe revise beliefs too slowly when new evidence arrives.
- Contrast EffectSomething looks better or worse depending on what it is compared with immediately before or beside it.
- Distinction BiasWhen options are compared side by side, we exaggerate small measurable differences that matter little in…
- Focusing effectWhen one salient detail is in focus, it pulls judgment toward itself and crowds out other relevant factors.
- Framing EffectEquivalent information leads to different choices depending on how it is worded or packaged.
- Money IllusionWe think in nominal money terms and ignore inflation, purchasing power, or real value.
Source of record