Case file
Occam's Razor
- Filed under
- Need To Act Fast
- Also recorded as
- principle of parsimony
The charge
We can overprefer the simplest explanation or plan because simplicity feels elegant and manageable, even when reality is more complex.
How it operates
Simple stories reduce cognitive load and uncertainty, so they are easier to believe and act on.
Logged incidents
- Incident 01
A company blames churn on price alone when onboarding and support are also involved.
- Incident 02
A manager explains poor performance as motivation instead of a multi-cause system issue.
- Incident 03
An investor picks the cleanest thesis and ignores interacting risks.
What to watch for
Watch for simple stories being chosen before alternatives are seriously explored. Ask: 'Am I choosing the simplest story because it is truest, or because it is easiest to hold in mind?'
Recommended action
Generate at least three competing hypotheses and compare them with evidence rather than elegance alone.
Known associates
- Ambiguity EffectWe avoid options when the odds, rules, or outcome distributions are unclear, even if the expected payoff may…
- Information BiasWe seek more information even when it is unlikely to improve the decision.
- Belief BiasWe judge an argument by whether we like its conclusion, not by whether its logic is sound.
- Rhyme-as-Reason EffectStatements that rhyme are judged as more truthful or wise than equivalent non-rhyming statements.
- Law of TrivialityGroups spend disproportionate time on easy, low-stakes details and too little on hard, high-stakes issues.
- Conjunction FallacyWe judge a detailed, specific scenario as more likely than a broader, simpler one that actually contains it.
Source of record